Circana: U.S. Toy Industry Stabilizing Through the Third Quarter

The following article is based on a press release issued by Circana on November 7, 2024.

November 7, 2024 | Circana announced U.S. toy retail sales performance results for January through September 2024, revealing that decline rates across dollars and units have slowed down. Compared to the same nine-month period in 2023, year-over-year dollar sales are flat, units sold are down half a percent, and average selling price (ASP) is up half a percent. Compared to 2019 sales, the toy industry remains 37 percent ahead, equating to $4.5 billion.

Four of the 11 supercategories that Circana tracks posted dollar growth through the third quarter, and three also posted unit growth. Building sets was the only supercategory to post growth across dollars, units, and ASP, driven by LEGO Botanicals. Other growth areas included explorative toys, led by NBA trading cards; plush, driven by Hello Kitty; and vehicles, led by Monster Jam. The industry’s primary declines came from outdoor and sports toys, dolls, and action figures.

According to Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions Report, consumers are planning to spend about 2 percent more on their holiday shopping this year than last year. Age strongly influences intended spending, with millennials planning to spend the most among all generations. Consumers with children plan to be the biggest spenders across all cohorts.

“The toy industry may get a boost this holiday season, with 43 percent of households with children reporting that they will spend more during the holiday season this year compared to last year – more than double that of households without children,” said Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana. “Still, a host of other categories are competing for a share of those same wallets. Necessities like clothing and footwear, technology like video games and smartphones, and trending categories like beauty will all challenge the toy industry.”

For more holiday shopping insights, check out The Toy Association’s latest trend report that features new consumer data about toys, play, and shopping leading into the holiday season.