NRF: Steady Sales Growth Expected for Holiday Season

The following article is based on a press release issued by the National Retail Federation on November 7, 2024.

November 7, 2024 | The National Retail Federation (NRF) remains optimistic about steady growth in holiday sales, projecting an increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent compared to 2023, totaling between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. This outlook persists despite mixed economic indicators, according to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, who reaffirmed in NRF’s November Monthly Economic Review that the U.S. economy remains in a good place.

Government data shows the economy had gained only 12,000 jobs during October and that the annual pace of gross domestic product growth had slowed to 2.8 percent in the third quarter 2024 from 3 percent in the second quarter 2024. But, Kleinhenz says that the drop in job numbers was caused by the temporary impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton along with major labor union strikes, and that employment had still gained 104,000 jobs on a three-month average. And despite GDP slowdown in the third quarter, there has been 10 consecutive quarters of steady growth.

It is too soon to predict the impact of this week’s election results on the economy for the remainder of the year or the effect they will have going forward, Kleinhenz said.

With inflation near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, households appear to be in good financial shape, aided by a robust stock market, increased home values, and wage growth that continues to outpace inflation. Consumer spending, meanwhile, has provided substantial momentum for the economy as holiday shopping begins.

“Putting all these considerations together, this holiday season looks very good,” Kleinhenz said. “Households are starting the season in decent financial shape and are managing the constraints of their paychecks, with growth in wages and salaries still supportive of a steady pace of spending. The economy remains on solid footing and is growing faster than many expected.”

For more holiday shopping insights, check out The Toy Association’s latest trend report that features new consumer data about toys, play, and shopping leading into the holiday season.